Future system scaling will be dominated by silicon non-determinism. Variability and reliability fundamentally change the scaling laws for density, power, speed, and cost. The GSRC Modeling and Metrics SIG seeks to enable quantitative evaluation of system-level alternatives and solutions by developing models and metrics that relate the process, circuit and micro-architectural layers to the system layer. Our work will enable system design to comprehend the impact and feasibility of technology options. Initial foci include reliability, flexibility and resilience criteria, via uncalibrated, "variational" scaling models. A long-term goal is no less than a new system scaling theory for the era of end-of-CMOS and beyond-CMOS.